Hurricane Experts Give Up Trying

In South Carolina, the natural disaster that we worry about more than any other is the hurricane. (No, not this one.) Every so often, the weather experts tell us whether or not we should expect an active hurricane season or not. Personally, I put very little stock in these predictions. However, we're seeing a change in this:

“We are discontinuing our early December quantitative hurricane forecast for the next year … Our early December Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts of the last 20 years have not shown real-time forecast skill even though the hindcast studies on which they were based had considerable skill.”

Basically: Our predictions have been worthless, so we're going to wait until the hurricanes are closer before we try to predict them so we stop making fools of ourselves.

The two scientists from Colorado State University will still discuss different probabilities of hurricane seasons in December. But the shift signals how far humans are, even with supercomputers, from truly knowing what our weather will do in the long run.

What? You're telling me that even with a "supercomputer" you can't predict general hurricane patterns a couple of months out?

One Question: Are we still supposed to go along with all your friends who are telling us that the entire earth is going to heat up in the next twenty years, the polar ice caps will melt, the cute polar bears will all die, and we'll all cook to death because Mrs. PP (and company) drives an SUV?

Just checking, because if you can't tell me whether or not a hurricane season is going to be big or not in less than a year, I have trouble believing you when you talk about things that will happen in 20 years.

[H/T: Ace]