Early General Election Thoughts

As a starting point, Obama's approval is still slightly below 50% (around 47.3% when you average out all the polls). That's not going to be easy to overcome. Over half of the people are not happy with the job he's doing. That's not a good thing for any incumbent.

The real fight in this election is going to be the competition to "define" what kind of economy we are going to have going forward. Obama is going to make the "don't go back to Bush" pitch, and Romney will hammer away at the fact that the last three years has been a huge spending spree with little to show for it.

On the actual issue of who can get to 270, I think Obama has a tough climb this November. Looking at the map that he won in 2008, I'm struck by a couple of things:

1. I don't see Obama taking North Carolina or Virginia in 2012. He rode a huge wave of voters in 2008 and flipped these two states which normally go red. I think both NC and VA go red this time.
2. Same thing with Indiana and Iowa. Obama carried them in 2008, but he won't have them this time. Flip those two states back to red.
3. Assuming that all the other states stay the same as in 2008, the race comes down to the usual suspects of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. If Florida breaks red, then Obama HAS to take both Ohio and PA.
4. Finally, the real interesting question (for me anyway) is: Can Romney expand the red to the Northeast? He's got a very strong supporter in NJ in Christie, he could possibly pull NH, and there's rumblings that CT could possibly be in play. If Romney starts making Obama play defense in the Northeast, it's going to be a very long election night for Team Obama. Pulling NJ's electoral votes red makes it hard for Obama to get to 270. And if you assume that NJ goes red, you're probably assuming that OH and PA are either red or very close.

Ultimately, I think this is going to be a very close race. I don't see the same type of voter turnout as 2008, when there was a huge anti-Bush wave that came together with the ability to vote for the first black president. Regardless of what happens between now and November, you won't have that same amount of excitement on the Democrat side. Romney has gone through one of the toughest primary fights ever, and he's going to be a disciplined candidate.

The economy isn't going to "turn" between now and November. It is what it is...GDP is just barely limping along, unemployment is still a problem, and there is an ocean of debt. None of that is going to change between now and November. It can't. The economy just can't change that quickly, and the debt is only going to get worse.

And if the Supreme Court strikes down Obamacare, it's going to be a black eye for Obama. Basically, he's done two things in office: (1) The Stimulus - it didn't work as promised. (2) Obamacare - ruled unconstitutional.

I'm not a campaign consultant, but hell...I could make a bumper-sticker for that. "Obama has done two things in office. One didn't work and the other was unconstitutional."

Ouch.