Post Debate Thoughts

Don't worry, unlike some celebrities, there are no curse words here. (I used all mine up last Saturday anyway.) The debates were pretty interesting when viewed in the context of each other. The final debate was most interesting as to what the candidates thought about the state of the race.

First a little recap. In the first debate, Romney came out hard, attacking, playing the prosecutor. At the same time, Obama thought he could just show up, recite his stump speech and win. Alas, it was not to be.

The first debate showed two things. One, Romney wasn't the evil guy that all the attack ads made him out to be. He actually had a plan for the future, and he could explain it. Two, Obama just didn't have the fire that he did four years ago. He was just "checking the box" of the debate, and his plan is to continue with "investing" in roads, bridges, and the same stuff he's been saying for four years. Romney ate his lunch, and everyone knew it. Well, almost everyone.

I think that Obama was playing a prevent defense too early. He knew he had a good lead in some important swing states, and he was simply going to show up, recite his stump speech, not make any major errors, and keep the election on it's current trajectory. As John Madden once said, "All a prevent defense does is prevent you from winning." That's exactly what happened. Romney scored touchdowns, and Obama wasn't even trying to play offense.

The second debate was what everyone thought the first debate was going to be. Both candidates came out of the gate hard, challenged each other, and at one point, I actually thought they were going to start hitting each other with the cordless microphones. Obama to his credit, responded well, showing that he still wanted the job. The energy debate centered on who was more in favor of drilling, which must have driven the environmentalists insane. In any event, basically a tie. However, the damage had been done in the first debate. The people who tuned in for the first debate had formed their impression. Relevant quote for this debate: "You never get a second chance to make a first impression."

The final debate was on foreign policy. Or at least it was supposed to be. At a few points in the debate, both candidates decided that they were just going to talk about domestic policy. Bob Sheiffer decided that he wasn't going to interrupt and get them back on the topic of foreign policy (or maybe he fell asleep) and the candidates talked about domestic policy for at least 10 minutes each in a 90 minute debate. Oh well, when the economy and domestic policy is as important as it is this election cycle, there aren't many votes to be had going into detail about foreign policy. Just kill the bad guys, which both candidates are in favor of.

Very differently than before, though, Romney came across as not the prosecutor, but the calm guy who was reasonable. He wasn't going to be the "Cowboy" President, unlike that last Republican in the White House. Romney agreed with Obama more in 90 minutes than he did in the entire campaign. Romney didn't attack Obama when given chances. On the contrary, Obama attacked Romney. All I can take away from this is that Obama thought he was behind (which he is) and Romney thought he was ahead (which he is). It was just the flip side of the first debate. The question is, does Romney's prevent defense work at this point, or does the Romney momentum fade too soon?

Ultimately: Most people voted for Obama last time. Why? Remember where we were four years ago? The outgoing Republican incumbent was toxic, and Obama was such a great story. It was a great combination that created a tidal wave of support. The landscape today couldn't be more different. The economy has been mired in the doldrums for four years, and the inspirational candidate from four years ago isn't here. This version of Obama is petty and condescending.

People desperately want the economy to get better, and they have a binary choice: Government continues to try and solve the problem, or government gets out of the way. We'll know in a few weeks. It's going to get more intense before then, so brace yourself - especially if you live in a swing state.