News Roundup for September 5, 2014

Happy Friday. It's a great (Amazon humidity level) day in South Carolina.

In looking around the internet, I see that George Will has an interesting piece on why Putin and his ambitions to expand Russia are a greater problem than ISIS. 

In other news: This is why we should have the death penalty. I can't even tell you how much this upsets me.

To end on a lighter note, we here in South Carolina officially have the best State flag.

Y'all be good out there.

Hey guys? I think Russia and Ukraine are at war.

I was going to try and make a joke, but there's not really anything funny about this.

Ukraine said its artillery partly destroyed a Russian armoured column that entered its territory overnight and said its forces came under shellfire from Russia on Friday in what appeared to be a major military escalation between the ex-Soviet states.

Yeah...armored columns going "poof" tend to indicate something more than a minor disagreement. I wonder what Fred Thompson's character in The Hunt for Red October would say about this.

Commercial Airliner Shot Down In Ukraine

BREAKING: Adviser to Ukraine's Interior Minister says passenger plane carrying 295 shot down.
— The Associated Press (@AP) July 17, 2014

Not good. It sounds like people are pointing fingers at Ukrainian separatists (the pro-Russian folks) within Ukraine. However, there's going to be some finger-pointing for a little while.

However, I expect Putin to come out and say that he's now compelled to go into Ukraine and stop all of this, since Kiev clearly cannot control their own people.

I just hope there wasn't an Austrian Archduke on that airplane.

“So far, Russia has failed to take any of the steps that I have mentioned. In fact, Russia’s support for the separatists and violations of Ukraine’s sovereignty has continued.”

So, President Obama is gonna up the sanctions. Get real tough, so to speak. I guess a few travel restrictions didn't really get their attention, huh? I'm sure that this new sanction will be super-duper, tough.

NEW SANCTION: "The new measures will severely restrict access to American debt markets for the targeted companies."

Ooooooh, snap! We won't loan some Russian companies some money.

That's the kind of tough sanction that's sure to cripple the Russian Bear, because nothing says you're serious like refusing to finance your adversary. Hey, you! Quit beating up on that small kid, or I'll...I'll refuse to loan you money.

Yup. I'm sure that this set of sanctions will work. Seriously, you guys.

Loud + Weak = War

Remember "Walk softly and carry a big stick"?

It kind of seems like we're doing the opposite now.

"Russia is a regional power that is threatening some of its immediate neighbors..."

...not out of strength, but out of weakness," Obama said.

Excuse me, but Russia isn't simply a "regional power". They have a whole bunch of ICBMs. Also, if you've ever looked at a map, you might have noticed that Russia stretches across many different regions.

Putin Knows How to Get People to the Polls

Every election here in the US, whether it's local, state, or national, I always hear the same thing. It's going to come down to voter turnout. So the politicians hire strategists like Karl Rove and David Axelrod to try and come up with a plan that gets their voters mobilized, energized, and out to actually vote.

Vladimir Putin has surpassed everyone here in the US in that regard.

With about half of the precincts reporting, 95.5% of the people of Crimea have voted to be join Russia. We here at the Permanent Press Decision Desk™ can now officially call this election for Russia.

Our sources on the ground in Crimea say that Putin really mobilized his base of ethnic Russians. Alsothe all important block of swing voters comprised of soccer moms and people who didn't want to be shot broke for Russia at the last moment.

Vladimir Putin's Campaign Staff

 In his post-election victory speech, Putin praised his uniformed staff for their efforts leading up to this crucial election.

"I thought about sending my staff door-to-door before the election to let people know our message, but I figured that I would just let all the voters know that we would be going door-to-door after the election if it didn't go our way. We saved a lot of time and energy with this strategy".

In an exit poll survey, 99% of the people who ended up voting for annexation to Russia cited "Not wanting to face the business end of an AK-47" as their main motivating factor.

In a related note, several voters praised the efficiency of the voting system, as compared to the Richland County Elections Board in Columbia, South Carolina. One voter in Crimiea said "Hey, at least we didn't have to stand in line for three hours to vote like those poor people in Richland County. Our ballots were actually pre-marked for us. We only  wait in long lines when we want to buy bread."

Eastern Europe Is Begging for Help

The Eastern European countries are begging for help from the USA.

European officials who want to reduce their dependency on Russian gas also have seized on the situation to mount a major lobbying campaign in Washington for new legislation to ease regulations on American LNG exports. Some of these countries, including Bulgaria, Sweden and the Baltic states, rely on Russia for 100 percent of their gas supplies, and Moscow has shown repeatedly it is willing to crimp supplies for leverage in political disputes.

We have the ability to help Eastern Europe be less dependent on Russia. This is what the USA is good at. We could out produce them, sell Eastern Europe all the fuel they could pay for. It would increase our exports, help our allies, and diminish Russia's influence. Will we do so?

Given the track record of our current President, it seems unlikely we will make this move.

What Are You Prepared to Do About it?

Russia has occupied the Crimea, and it is looking towards the rest of Ukraine. The West hasn't responded yet, and the longer the West waits, the weaker it looks. The weaker it looks, the more likely it is that Russia will take more.

The question to the West is: What are you prepared to do? I'm not sure any of our current leaders are prepared to do much.

Ukraine Is Game To You?

Just easing into this week with a light-hearted Monday post.

Don't take yourself too seriously.

My Thoughts on Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

I am not a fan of President Obama, but it gives me no pleasure to see him embarrassed on the international stage. He represents me. He represents the entire country.

Russia has invaded Ukraine. That's a fact. Does Putin give a rip about the speeches given in the West? No. He's going to respond with a version of Stalin's line of "How many divisions do you have"? 

Russian leaders, through time immemorial, respect strength and exploit weakness.

Does this bode well for the American hegemony that has dominated the globe for the last 70 years? No. Does this help the people of Taiwan, Tel Aviv, and Poland sleep better at night? No.

You don't think China is watching? Maduro in Venezuela? Khamenei in Iran? Even if you don't care much about the Crimea, it is much bigger than that. Our President says that he isn't looking at the world like a Cold War chessboard. I would say that this is chess and he's not seeing the whole board.

Deterrence works only on a track record. Every time you don't act, you invite the next, bigger crisis. Sitting idle and grumbling (as you say) is a mistake. It would constitute a signal to Putin that he would welcome. Even if you do not agree that free nations must defend other nations as a moral obligation, it is a practical one. Dictators always expand. This is a strongman claiming to "protect" those in another country with a similar culture. I think I've seen this movie before.

So let's say you don't want to go military, Fine. What could we do? Russia's economy depends on high natural gas prices. Economics works here. Europe should start fracking, and US should increase natural gas exports. Price falls. Also, all of Russia's natural gas pipelines go through Ukraine. Anyone ever seen Lawrence of Arabia? BOOM. Russia has less money for foreign adventures.

Top Headlines Thread (Russian Toilet Instructions Edition)

FRIDAY!

Here's a look around at the top five headlines I'm seeing today:

1. Jay Leno Says Farewell to the "Tonight Show": After a long run, he's finally leaving. I've seen plenty of criticism of Leno from people who say he's really dull, but I always thought he was pretty funny. My guess is he'll find some way to keep telling jokes for a living.

2. Charleston School of Law to Possibly Merge With the College of Charleston?: It appears that the State Legislature gets the final say on whether the Charleston School of Law can be sold to a private group, and that's not a sure thing. Accordingly the College of Charleston is looking into it. Law Schools can be quite a cash cow, since they don't require much overhead and rake in tuition dollars.

3. SC Legislature has Bill to Ban Abortions After 20 Weeks: If I remember correctly, this was the same thing proposed in Texas that (by her opposition) propelled Wendy Davis to the forefront of national politics. Could we see a similar phenomenon here in South Carolina? If so, which state legislator is the most likely to be the face of the opposition to this law?

4. Four Ways Obamacare Hurts Millennials: Spoiler alert -- Young people are helping pay for the older, sicker people's coverage.

5. Want to Buy a Gun? Be Glad You Don't Live In Massachusetts: Hey, it could be worse. I hear China has some pretty tough restrictions on guns as well.

Yeah, yeah yeah...the Winter Olympics are starting, too. I guess that's news. The real news is all the problems that are going on with the logistics. Russia is weird, though. Here is a sign that is above toilets in Russian Hotels

 What's that on the bottom left? Do some people fish in toilets? Is this a Russian thing? I also like the bottom right one. Is that guy doing "air drums" on the toilet with a beer bottle?

That's all I got for some Friday AM links.

Cool Photos of a Nuclear Powered Icebreaker

It's at the North Pole, and there's ice as far as you can see in every direction. Great high-quality pictures that have an eerie peacefulness to them.

Stay frosty.

Russia's Offer to Take Syria's Chemical Weapons

First, I think this will be the deal. Or something very close. It offers too much face-saving to everyone involved. Don't forget: Syria and Russia are allies. They're on the same side. Russia wants Assad to stay in power. That's their interest. With this deal: 

• The USA gets to say: We forced Assad to give up his chemical weapons! 
• The Russians get to say: We brokered a peace deal! Look how important we are! 
• Assad gets to say: I'm not guilty, but here are my chemical weapons.

The Russians and Syrians know that we are very unlikely to bomb Assad much. However, Russia might not have wanted to take the chance that a little push on Assad might have tipped the balance of the civil war. The Russians cannot afford for Assad to lose to the jihadist rebels. So maybe the Russians are being a little risk-averse here.

Also, the chemical weapons have no further use for Assad. His goal is to win the civil war, and he can do that with conventional weapons. I'm sure that part of this deal will have the Russians giving/selling more conventional weapons to the Assad, so he can continue prosecuting the war. I hate to break it to y'all, but people are just as dead from an AK-47 as they are from sarin. Dead is dead.

It's possible that Assad is giving up nothing by giving up chemical weapons since those weapons have already achieved as much military advantage they were going to achieve. Think about it like chess.

What Russia and Syria are doing is taking and keeping the initiative, forcing Obama to respond to them. They're offering to exchange some pieces for position and time. The piece they are giving up are no longer useful in the full sense. However, they get to string out "inspections" and such for a long time. It will probably be long enough for Syria to win the civil war.

In chess--a game Putin no doubt knows very well--initiative is nearly everything: one has the advantage when one is forcing an opponent to respond to your moves rather than you to his. By forcing Obama's play, he is effectively one or more moves ahead.

In chess, there are (basically) three stages of the game. There's the opening game, in which the players being to strategically place all of their pieces on the board, bringing out their powerful pieces in turn. This is followed by the middle game, which takes place after some of the pawns have been cleared away and there is room for powerful pieces to exert their reach. Finally, you have the endgame, where final pressure on the opponent's king is exerted, and he's ultimately powerless and trapped in checkmate.

We're now in the middle game. The endgame here is Iran with nukes. Checkmate happens when the Iranians achieve nuclear capability and we are maneuvered into a position where we can do nothing about it.

Sometimes mistakes in the opening cannot be overcome.