I've looked at the polls and I've decided that I'm going to go with my gut on a few picks. First I think that that Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia go red. Florida is the state that Romney really needs, and he'll get it earlier in the night than most people think. North Carolina is red. 2008 was sooooo 2008. It's red again this year, along with Virginia.
New Hampshire goes red because Romney is in solid shape there. I wouldn't have expected this a month ago, but I'm cautiously optimistic for New Hampshire. Colorado goes red, because it's razor thin in the polling, and it's been moving Romney's way in the last month.
So, to count electoral votes at this point, I've got Romney 261, Obama 223. The remaining states are Iowa, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Since Romney needs 9, Iowa becomes irrelevant.
Romney wins one of the remaining three, or Obama wins all three, and it's game over. I know that lots of really optimistic GOP folks are saying Pennsylvania is going red this year, but I'm not buying. PA is blue. Just to go for the unexpected, I'm going to say that Obama gets Ohio and Romney pulls a surprise and takes the Badger state to go over the top.
Final Score: Romney 271; Obama 267.
Here's my map. Am I crazy? Or crazy like a fox?
I'll settle for your version. My version has Obama less than 200 and PA being the only real toss-up state this morning.
ReplyDeleteVote percentage to note: Washington DC. Only twice since its residents have been able to vote have less than 80% voted Democrat. In 1972, Nixon got 22% and in 1980, Reagan got 25%.
Now for the crazy -- MN could go R. I count MN voters as some of the most stubborn ever, but the Dems *only* got 54% of the vote there in 2008 and Minnesotans love them some 3rd party. If those disappointed in Obama go for Jill Stein and the Minnesota Rs go the ground glass route, it could be as close in Minnesota as it was in 1916.
If PA is close, that's bad news for Obama. A close race in PA signifies that Ohio will probably go red.
DeleteWisconsin, NH, CO and VA all going to Romney? I'd say crazy like a Fox News pundit. I give you props for dreaming, but I cannot see Romney carrying all of those states. Nate Silver was 49/50 in the last election and has each of those states going blue. Scotty Rats' polls do not have as much accuracy. As we discussed, this is Obama's to lose. If you look at those states, all polls but Rassumssen all have Obama ahead. Even if one of those goes to Obama, using your model, its Obamas. So there you have it, 4 more years of the terrorist loving, Kenyan born socialist :).
ReplyDeleteOk Dave. Time to get off the sidelines. What's your final electoral vote prediction?
DeleteI think Wisconsin goes red because:
1. Scott Walker won the governorship.
2. The GOP proxy in the Supreme Court race won.
3. Scott Walker won the recall.
4. Ryan is from Wisconsin.
5. I got a feeling.
This is not 2008.
DeleteSecond, Nate's got a better track record with burritos. His political record is 1 win, 1 loss. His model relies on polling data that is not now and never has been all that reliable. Using more of it doesn't make it so. He generated his own burrito data.
My prediction is Obama 303 to Romney 235. Romney is not going to win WI or NH. Colorado and VA, two states that the Republicans used to have in the bag are moving towards the left. Plus, again, all the polling shows him winning in those states. That and the fact we were already arguing over those states and I'd be foolish not to tell the entire permanent press world you are wrong!
ReplyDeleteBack to Wisconsin, the fact that Scott Walker was even up for recall should tell you something about his popularity. He outspent that effort by what 20-1 to beat that back. Plus Wisconsin hasn't voted for the Republican in a long time.
Christie is actually a POPULAR Republican Governor here, yet, NJ is not in play. Kentucky has a democratic governor as well....I don't see many Obama posters there. Ryan may be from there, but is not popular in a lot of the state. He's a congressman, and a polarizing one at that. Lastly, the only poll you have is Rasmussen, take that with a grain of salt. Plus, I think he said it was tied. Tied to Rasmussen means dems are up by 3%.
All hinges on VA and OH, and I think that obama can win if he carries either.
Wisconsin hasn't voted for the Republican candidate since 1984. It's about time, again. It's gone R for 8 of the last 17 presidential elections. While Obama got 56% of the vote in Wisconsin in 2008, there was only .4% separating Bush/Kerry in 2004 and 1% separating Bush/Gore in 2000.
ReplyDeleteWisconsin will be close this year.
http://xkcd.com/1130/
ReplyDeleteIf John Kerry won Wisconsin, Barrack Obama will win Wisconsin. Every poll has him 1-10% ahead with the exception of Rasmussen, which is a tie. Closer than 10%, yes, but its going to Obama. Really don't think its even a real competitive state. Romney liked to think so because Ryan is from there, but its "wishful" thinking. Romney needs OH and VA to win. Don't see any other way he pulls it off.
ReplyDeleteThe folks in Wisconsin are starting to get used to voting GOP. The whole thing with Walker was the he promised to lower takes and spend less. If Wisconsin goes blue, it will be by less than 4 points.
DeleteI hate being wrong.
ReplyDeleteNow...apologize to the great Nate Silver :) Fun discussion. Is it salt in the wound to point out that Wisconsin elected an openly gay female senator. Does that counter balance Walker and Ryan in that state now? Seriously, lets ALL hope the next 4 years are an improvement.
ReplyDeleteI really do hope that the next four years are an improvement. Unfortunately, I doubt the tone in Washington changes from either party.
DeleteNo salt in the wound at all. I wish Tammy Baldwin had been the Democratic nominee for president.
DeleteWelp. I was wrong. I basically thought that 2008 was an aberration in terms of turnout. Apparently, it wasn't. I guess VA is now officially a blueish swing state in the same category as Ohio.
ReplyDeleteI'm looking forward to the President solving our national problem of being severely undertaxed and then spending that money on more "roads and bridges".