I've looked at the polls and I've decided that I'm going to go with my gut on a few picks. First I think that that Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia go red. Florida is the state that Romney really needs, and he'll get it earlier in the night than most people think. North Carolina is red. 2008 was sooooo 2008. It's red again this year, along with Virginia.
New Hampshire goes red because Romney is in solid shape there. I wouldn't have expected this a month ago, but I'm cautiously optimistic for New Hampshire. Colorado goes red, because it's razor thin in the polling, and it's been moving Romney's way in the last month.
So, to count electoral votes at this point, I've got Romney 261, Obama 223. The remaining states are Iowa, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Since Romney needs 9, Iowa becomes irrelevant.
Romney wins one of the remaining three, or Obama wins all three, and it's game over. I know that lots of really optimistic GOP folks are saying Pennsylvania is going red this year, but I'm not buying. PA is blue. Just to go for the unexpected, I'm going to say that Obama gets Ohio and Romney pulls a surprise and takes the Badger state to go over the top.
Final Score: Romney 271; Obama 267.
Here's my map. Am I crazy? Or crazy like a fox?
