#BringBackOurGDP

Am I the only person slightly concerned about this whole economy contracting by 2.9% in the first quarter of 2014?

It's not all "weather related". The weather doesn't drop your GDP by 2.9%. Or as Reuters puts it:

While the economy's woes have been largely blamed on an unusually cold winter, the magnitude of the revision suggests other factors at play beyond the weather.

No kidding? The weather isn't entirely to blame? I think we need to deploy a hashtag. Remember #BringBackOurGirls?. If we have another quarter of negative GDP, that's a recession.

Yeah, I think it's time for #BringBackOurGDP.

Friday Morning Good News Only Headlines

Happy Friday.

Medal of Honor recipient, Corporal Kyle Carpenter

Since it's Friday, here are some of the positive and uplifting headlines I'm seeing this morning. (I'm not going into all the negative stuff.)

1. Lexington, South Carolina's own Kyle Carpenter received the Medal of Honor yesterday. He intentionally threw himself on a grenade to save his buddies. You can see the official citation here.

2. Gun manufacturer thriving since moving to SC from CT, and will be issuing a commemorative SC rifle to say "thank you" to South Carolina.

3. 1964 Jaguar E-Type found in pristine condition in "nearly pristine condition" in a barn.

4. Oh, and Kate Upton has apparently made a cameo in a country music video. In case you're into country music...or whatever.

Saturday Morning: Breakfast and Headlines

I love being able to wake up on Saturday morning and cook a leisurely breakfast. With nowhere to be first thing in the morning, I can take more time than the normal because my main goal isn't getting out the door. Using a cast iron skillet, you can make almost anything.

So, now that I've got some coffee and eggs, here are some articles I'm reading today:

1. More on Bergdahl: Taliban says that they found Bergdahl alone, cursing Americans. I'm beginning to think that Bergdahl didn't intend to be a traitor, he was just a deserter/idiot.

2. In economic news: The percentage of American civilians 16 or older who do not have a job and are not actively seeking one remained at a 36-year high in May. Any which way you slice it, that's a lot. 37.2% of people 16 or older are not working. That's not how you have a productive economy.

3. In news of the stupid, a San Antonio, TX school allowed a 10 year old girl to get sunburned on a field trip because they don't allow children to take sunscreen with them...because the school considers it a "toxic substance". The stupid. It burns. Literally, in this case.

4. In BBQ news, Garden and Gun has a list of the top 21 BBQ sandwiches in the South. Jackie Hite's was the only one from South Carolina.

Ok, time for a coffee refill...

The Economy Contracted In First Quarter of 2014

Negative 1.0%

But according to CNN, it's not a big deal because...snow occurred this winter. And as we all know, snow has never, ever happened before in winter. It was a freak occurrence this time.

But according to CNN, we're totally poised for growth, y'all. Nothing like a negative GDP number to show how poised we are for growth, right?

US Economy Contracted In First Quarter of 2014

They have a term for a contracting economy, I believe.

Incorporating the new data, J.P. Morgan ChaseJPM +0.13% on Tuesday estimated GDP contracted at a 0.8% rate in the first quarter. Macroeconomic Advisers put the contraction at 0.7%. Barclays Capital predicted a 0.6% decline. Pierpont Securities estimated output fell at a 0.4% rate. Action Economics estimated a 0.2% decline.

Unless the economy really gets going, we have a very good chance of two consecutive quarters of negative GDP.

Unemployment Rate in One Graph

Everyone is celebrating that the unemployment rate dropped today. Yay! I guess happy days are here again!

Not so much. Look at this chart.

The unemployment rate (the blue line) is at it's lowest rate Since September of 2008. That's good right?

The reason that the unemployment rate is at a 5 year low is because the amount of people looking for work (the labor force participation rate) is at a thirty year low. Thirty. Years. If you're not an economist, what this means is that if you're not "looking for work" you're not counted as "unemployed". Therefore, we're just not counting as many people as "unemployed" not because they have jobs, but because they don't have jobs and aren't looking for jobs.

The red line represents what the unemployment rate would actually be if we used the same numbers of people looking for jobs as we did in June 2009.

So you can dance the happy dance all you want because the unemployment rate went down, but you're kind of fooling yourself if you think it went down because the economy is heating up.

Remember, First Quarter GDP was 0.1%. That's almost no growth in the economy at all. Excuse me if I refrain from doing a happy dance just yet.

Senate Expected to Vote Down a Minimum Wage Hike

Looks like the Senate won't be working with the President to raise the minimum wage.

The Senate is scheduled to take a test vote at noon Wednesday in whether to raise the minimum wage--and it's expected to fall short.

Sixty are needed to continue considering the measure. Democrats control 55 of the Senate's 100 votes, and virtually all are expected to back the increase to $10.10 from the current $7.25.

While some Republicans are seeking a compromise, others are balking. "Those who are being hurt the most in the Obama economy are the most vulnerable among us – young people, Hispanics, African-Americans and single moms,” said Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, during Tuesday's debate.

Being a classical liberal myself on such issues, I'd prefer that the minimum wage be $0. (If that makes your head explode, go read this.)

My guess is that this will be a main issue of the upcoming midterm elections. That, racism, and #WarOnWomen, I suppose. Excuse me while I go gouge my eyeballs out.

US Economy's Growth Was Slower Than Expected in 4th Quarter

GDP revised down to 2.4% from 3.5%

As Instapundit would say, it was Unexpectedly!™ revised downwards. Sure. Who could have seen this coming, right?

The President has been telling us that the economy is "poised" for growth. He's been saying that for about five years. At some point being poised for growth isn't really growth. It's failure.

It's like a parent saying that their child has lots of potential. You can say that when your child is 8. When your child is 28 and still doesn't have job, you can't keep saying how much "potential" your kid has. He's a loser.

Sumter Man Attempts to Pay Applebee's Tab with $1Trillion Dollar Bill

Applebee's declined. As an aside, the piece doesn't say how much his tab was. I'm assuming that it was substantially less than one trillion dollars, since Applebee's is a pretty good value.

Hey, he was probably just following the advice of noted economist Paul Krugman.

The Economics of Sex and Downton Abbey

This is one of those  "Whiteboard Videos", where they show you graphs while delivering the point, and it's interesting. It looks at the issue of sex as an economic transaction, and looks at the exchange in economic terms - supply and demand.

I think there are some more complicated factors out there not addressed by looking at relationships in purely economic terms can be misleading, but there is some truth to most of the points in this video. The most insightful comment in the presentation is: Men tend to behave as well, or as poorly, as the women in their lives permit.

There is some truth in that.

In the past, the issue of sex resulting in a baby made pre-marital sex (or at least sex without a serious committed relationship) much more risky, and therefore it was not as casual as it is now. (See, Edith's pregnancy in the fourth season of Downton Abbey).

Sometimes you had to go to France if you got pregnant without a husband. Or was it Switzerland?

Anyway, watch the whole video. It's safe for viewing. There's no nudity or bad language. It's economics, so relax. I would be interested to see if men and women have different perspectives on the points asserted. As Instapundit is always noting, the benefits of marriage to men have been downgraded over time through various factors, not the least of which is divorce jurisprudence.

Shamelessly stolen from Ace's Place.

Obama Considers Raising Minimum Wage

Through supporting a law to be passed by Congress? You know, the normal way laws are passed?

Nah, who needs the legislative body, amirite? He's considering doing it via Executive Order, which surprises me not at all.

Dictators gonna dictate.

Question for All the Central Planners Out There

Question for all the super-smart central planners out there: How do you lower the cost of a product or service?

It is an iron-clad rule of economics: The only way to reduce cost is to increase supply or decrease demand. 

Forget reducing demand. That's not happening, because we're not talking about a luxury good like wine or iPods. We're talking about getting your head stitched up when you fall off a ladder, or getting your gall bladder out. Demand isn't going anywhere, so that leaves us with the supply of health care. Not health insurance. Health care.

And Obamacare does nothing to address cost, because it doesn't increase the supply of health care. If you wanted to increase the supply of health care, you could come up with lots of ways to do that. However it does nothing of the kind.

In fact, Obamacare is chock-block full of policies and regulations that further artificially limit supply.

A bill that increased the supply of health care--not health insurance!--would be a bill with majority support.

Alas, the same folks who wrote this failure of a law will likely be the ones to write the single-payer law to follow.

Obamacare Actually Cancels More Plans Than It Creates

Remember way back, a long time ago? Back when we were debating Obamacare having Obamacare shoved down our throats because it would result in more insured people? For our own good, of course.

Yeah, about that.

More than 4.7 million Americans had their health insurance canceled as a result of any of the thousand-plus-page law’s new rules, The Associated Press reports, but the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) confirmed Tuesday that between federal and state exchanges, just two million Americans have signed up for Obamacare coverage. (RELATED: Obama administration announces net loss of at least 3 million insurance plans)

So, we're down 3 million insurance plans due to this law. I guess this is what the Ivy-League folks call a "sub-optimal" outcome, right? I'm only asking because I'm a moron from South Carolina.

Just to recap: Less people have insurance, it costs more, and it covers less.

That's one hellava a system you came up with, guys.

Elections Have Consequences

Remember Colorado's decision to enact stricter gun control last year?

Magpul Industries has finally made good on their promise to leave Colorado. They've announced that they will be taking their 250 jobs and moving to Texas and Wyoming. I'm sure the anti-gunners are probably happy to have Magpul gone anyway.

That's fine. I'm sure Texas and Wyoming are happy to welcome manufacturing jobs to their state. If you're going to be hostile to a particular industry, you shouldn't be surprised when they leave.

Maybe Colorado can make up the loss of jobs and revenue by selling more marijuana.

Friday Open Thread (Slow News Day)

Happy Friday.

Not much for news out there, other than a "meh" kind of budget deal in Congress.

Not much is new with the complete failure of Obamacare, other than it's still a train-wreck. The most recent news is that HHS is requiring that insurers allow people until December 31 to pay for coverage that would start January 1. How in the world is that going to work? You've got to at least have time for people's checks to clear. Remember, insurance is a contract - you don't get coverage unless you pay.

This is shaping up to be a serious mess come January 1. In other related news that's depressing here are three reasons that today's teenagers can't find jobs. (And why this is really bad for America.)

If you want, you can keep up with my profile on the Farmer's Only dating website.

California Liberals Get Hit With a Clue Bat

This has to be my favorite story so far about the ACA rollout. It's priceless. If you don't want to go read the whole thing, I'll give you the highlights. However, you should go read the whole thing.

Cindy Vinson and Tom Waschura are big believers in the Affordable Care Act. They vote independent and are proud to say they helped elect and re-elect President Barack Obama.

They're just two Californians living the liberal dream. They're really excited about Obamacare being active, because they buy their health insurance on the private market. Accordingly, they were interested to see how that might affect their existing policies. It's all sunshine and puppy dogs, right?

Vinson, of San Jose, will pay $1,800 more a year for an individual policy, while Waschura, of Portola Valley, will cough up almost $10,000 more for insurance for his family of four.

Whoa! I'm pretty sure that Vinson and Waschura thought that someone else would be paying for all this great coverage. You know, the rich!

"I was laughing at Boehner -- until the mail came today," Waschura said, referring to House Speaker John Boehner, who is leading the Republican charge to defund Obamacare. "I really don't like the Republican tactics, but at least now I can understand why they are so pissed about this. When you take $10,000 out of my family's pocket each year, that's otherwise disposable income or retirement savings that will not be going into our local economy."

Hey, now! Look who's starting to talk like a Republican, talking about his family's money and the local economy. That's just crazy, winger-talk. To quote John McClane: Welcome to the party, pal.

Now, as good as that quote is, here's the best one. Seriously, hold on to your butt. Ready? Ok. Here's where he gets hit with the Clue Bat:

"Of course, I want people to have health care," Vinson said. "I just didn't realize I would be the one who was going to pay for it personally."

I love it. Love it. He wants people to have free stuff. He just doesn't want to be the one who pays for it. This probably sums up every liberal program ever thought up. I love the thought of this liberal Californian finally having the reality of math hit him in the head. When you give free stuff to one person, you don't just magic it up out of thin air - someone has to pay for it.

You can almost use this quote like a template and put anything in. "Of course, I want people to have _________," Vinson said. "I just didn't realize I would be the one who was going to pay for it personally." See? Works for whatever you want.

Welcome to the real word, y'all. I wonder if they can relate to some folks who think they are Taxed Enough Already. Maybe? It always cracks me up that liberals like these folks think that they are the smartest people ever, but can't figure out that 2 + 2 = 4. I would like to conclude this post with a direct letter to these two Californian liberals.

Dear Waschura and Vinson: 

Remember how funny it was when Pelosi said they had to pass the bill (in the middle of the night on Christmas eve with only Democrat Votes and parliamentary tricks and payoffs) so you could find out what was in it? Remember how you screamed that anyone opposed was a racist teabagger? Remember how you giggled every time you said teabagger? Remember how happy you were when it was signed by the President? Remember how many times you've said "It's the law!" Remember all that? 

I do. 

Not so funny now, is it?

Sincerely,
Permanent Press

The ACA May Work; Provided No One Responds to Incentives

The WSJ has a good piece up on why the ACA is reliant on young people acting in opposition to their self-interests.

To sum up: The ACA being feasible is reliant on having young and healthy people (people who won't consume much health care) sign up to buy health insurance so as to offset the unhealthy people (people who will consume health care). If enough young and healthy people don't sign up and pay into the system, the rates will go up on the sick people who enroll, and the whole system fails.

It's basically a massive transfer of wealth from young healthy people to older, sicker people.

Accordingly, the whole program relies on having young and healthy people pay money for an insurance policy that they will very likely not need to use, and when they are least capable of affording it. The problem is, it's not really in young people's self-interest to do this.

I guess it's poetic in some way that the waves of young voters who sent Obama to the Presidency are now going to be required to put their money where their vote was.

They're going to get some hope and change, alright. It's just going to cost them.

Six Bids Received on Palmetto Compress Building

The City of Columbia has announced that a total of six bids were received from various entities interested in developing the Palmetto Compress Building. The exact nature of the bids will remain secret until City of Columbia's Review Board has had time to analyze them all. I've already expressed my thoughts on this matter, but now that the City has gone ahead and bought the building, I'm in the awkward position of hoping for success in a venture I would never have begun.

Hopefully, some of the bids will be viable, and not put the City in a position to lose money. We'll see... Keep in mind, the City of Columbia purchased the building for $5.6 million. Selling the building for a little less wouldn't be a terrible outcome if the development turns out wonderfully. The worst case scenario would be the City of Columbia selling the building at a loss to a developer who ultimately is unsuccessful.

I just have a little trouble believing that this is all going to come out roses, because the private owners tried (in vain) to sell this building for years. Maybe they wanted too much money. Maybe they didn't. Maybe the City isn't as interested in turning a profit as the previous owners.

August Jobs Report

If you've just been reading the headlines, you've missed the actual story. Apparently, the economy ain't all roses. I think this chart is pretty revealing:

On the other hand, it's Friday.

If $15/hour Is So Great, Why Not $200/hour?

The answer is of course, obvious. So why do so many people think that doubling wages for fast food workers is a good idea?