Saturday, March 1, 2014

My Thoughts on Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

I am not a fan of President Obama, but it gives me no pleasure to see him embarrassed on the international stage. He represents me. He represents the entire country.

Russia has invaded Ukraine. That's a fact. Does Putin give a rip about the speeches given in the West? No. He's going to respond with a version of Stalin's line of "How many divisions do you have"? 

Russian leaders, through time immemorial, respect strength and exploit weakness.

Does this bode well for the American hegemony that has dominated the globe for the last 70 years? No. Does this help the people of Taiwan, Tel Aviv, and Poland sleep better at night? No.

You don't think China is watching? Maduro in Venezuela? Khamenei in Iran? Even if you don't care much about the Crimea, it is much bigger than that. Our President says that he isn't looking at the world like a Cold War chessboard. I would say that this is chess and he's not seeing the whole board.

Deterrence works only on a track record. Every time you don't act, you invite the next, bigger crisis. Sitting idle and grumbling (as you say) is a mistake. It would constitute a signal to Putin that he would welcome. Even if you do not agree that free nations must defend other nations as a moral obligation, it is a practical one. Dictators always expand. This is a strongman claiming to "protect" those in another country with a similar culture. I think I've seen this movie before.

So let's say you don't want to go military, Fine. What could we do? Russia's economy depends on high natural gas prices. Economics works here. Europe should start fracking, and US should increase natural gas exports. Price falls. Also, all of Russia's natural gas pipelines go through Ukraine. Anyone ever seen Lawrence of Arabia? BOOM. Russia has less money for foreign adventures.

1 comment:

  1. not even the peanut farmer could do as poorly as the kenyan

    we will be paying for this with american lives and lost economic opportunities (measured in wasted life) far into the future

    Hampton's Redshirt